Cahns book basically engages in cherry-picking.. Think about this. Thus, although the economic busts that he relates to Shemitahs really did occur, the book leaves us with an incomplete picture of the actual statistical significance of the phenomenon. We thought the MTIwith over 125 inputswas pretty exhaustive. Looks like things are right on target. You know, a lot of people are searching around for this info, you can help them greatly. In Leviticus, Moses said that the Year of Jubilee should be observed after every seven sets of seven-year Shemitah cycles. Unfortunately, markets have frequently taken this suggestion quite literally! Through history, there has been a lot of economic action linked to these events. Let's take a look at the incredibly accurate timing of the Shmita Year as it impacts modern history in the realm of finances, economies, and empires: 1901-1902 Shmita Year - 46% U.S. Stock market value wiped out. Both dates were the eve of Rosh Hashanah on the final day of a shmita year. Its a short list of events that have corresponded with the shemita since 1900: Hvorfor de rike blir rikere og forbrukeren klr seg i hodet, September 26th 2022 and the end of shemita (the sabbath year), The Timeline Shows The Death of The US Dollar As World Reserve, The Biggest Scam In The History Of Mankind, The Rollercoaster Crash Deflation FIRST, Restored Republic via a GCR: Update as of September 23, 2022 | Dinar Chronicles. If this force really exists, it might actually impact the valuation of stock markets, investments, and currencies on a recurring basis. His Hidden Secrets of Money is a great input to your own thought process. Also, the value of property or farm land being sold was to be prorated relative to the time left before the next Year of Jubilee. Please contact us in case of abuse. These types of intense boom-and-bust periods characterize the economies of todays world, and they appear to be unpredictable and unpreventable. Personal debts are forgiven, and commitments to faith are renewed. Jubilee is based on letting the land rest every 7th year, known as the Shmita year. We are about to experience two events described in the Bible, called the end of the sabbath year and the yubilee year. 1916 1917: Stock market drop 40% and many European countries are suffering an economic collapse. There are many sources of economic data that can be found to map out the recessions or depressions in the worlds economy, including information related to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as well as the booms and busts in the stock markets or bond markets, the increases and decreases in currency values, or the rise and fall of unemployment. Here is a chart comparing all of the years: It is hard to understand what to do with this data. The Shemitah of 2015 produced the worst year for the stock market in seven years, or since 2008 - the last Shemitah! Sukkot, Shmita and a stock market crash? In this article I want to have a look at the Shemitah Cycle also known as the 7-year cycle. I call this proposition the Shemitah Effect, after a Biblical law and the Jewish name that is used to describe it. How can the Torahs idealistic instruction to cease agricultural labor for one year every seven apply to a 24/7 post-industrial reality? This happened to be as well a Shemitah year. In this way we gain Shemitah, the last year of a seven-year cycle in the Jewish calendar, has several times in the past brought immense financial hardships to the world. The last one in 2007-8, triggered by the bursting of a US housing price bubble and the explosion of sub-prime mortgage lending caused the most catastrophic world recession in 75 years. Therefore, working backward from the Shemitah of 2014-2015, the following years can be calculated to be Shemitahs simply subtracting 7 from each year. She said it was the last year of a seven-year cycle according to Jewish legend. It can be a fearful thing to turn away from self-reliance in getting what you need and become completely reliant on God, especially if you have no faith. You shall thus consecrate the fiftieth year and proclaim a release through the land to all its inhabitants. Everything regarding property ownership would be equalized again at the Year of Jubilee. Many economists and others who study the global financial systems have wondered why major downturns in the economy seem to happen in early fall, especially in the months of September and October. YOU NEED TO DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH AND MAKE YOUR OWN DECISIONS! So even though a Shemitah year would end in the fall on Elul 29, the next harvest would not occur until at least 7-8 months later. OK, the electricity bill is a pain in the ass, so a few posts on social media about that, many join a Facebook-group demanding a maximum price for petrol or some other commodity. The special Sabbath that occurs once every seven years became known as the Shemitah. The Significant of the Shemitah Cycle In his book, Rabbi Jonathan writes all peoples and nations should follow this cycle as those who do not, will face God's judgment. From my perspective, its all quite weird. Perhaps the ancient Jews just knew. These differences are significant (p < 0.05). German, Austro-Hungarian, Russian and Ottoman Empires collapsed. . The opinions, facts and any media content in them are presented solely by the authors, and neither The Times of Israel nor its partners assume any responsibility for them. When the United States is consumed by greed and ignores these biblical. Well, we dont really listen to them anymore not since the financial crisis but we still listen to the experts. The impact of the These data appear to indicate that a Shemitah Effect may indeed be real and affecting the worlds economy even when the Mosaic Law originally only applied to Israel. Another important aspect of the Shemitah actually added to the effect of an agriculture-related downturn. Were now less than a month away from the end of the current shemita as well as the current yubilee-year. It doesnt matter if hes right or wrong, what matters is you and your view of things. tower; "Come, let us build ourselves a city, and a tower whose top is in the heavens; let us make a You shall then sound a rams horn abroad on the tenth day of the seventh month; on the day of atonement you shall sound a horn all through your land. The seventh year is meant to be a reset, a return to the real values that underpin our increasingly frantic efforts. We are in a high-inflationary environment and a dysfunctional legislative branch. Though they tried to run from it, the Shemitah Effect eventually caught up to them and caused 70 years of banishment from their land! This rest also applies to the cycles of weeks Thus, every year some seeds would drop to the ground during harvest and result in new plants growing the next year. It seems very difficult though. Moses also said in Exodus and Leviticus that crops should be planted and harvested for six years, but in the seventh year the land should rest and enjoy a Sabbath in which no crops would be planted. In proportion to the extent of the years you shall increase its price, and in proportion to the fewness of the years you shall diminish its price, for it is a number of crops he is selling to you. This represents a 70% correlation of the Shemitah Effect to the most significant point drops in stock market history. Germany, Russia, Austria, Turkey and Great Britain suffer . There is always some rational, well-grounded economic reason why the current boom whether in South Sea stocks, internet companies or residential real estate will go on for ever and ever. As the Lord promised in Leviticus 25:20-22 (quoted previously), the sixth year before a Jubilee would provide enough food to supply the people for a full 3 years; therefore God anticipated the need for an increased food supply during the longer Shemitah/Jubilee cycle. BGC Partners, Inc. (Nasdaq: BGCP) ("BGC"), a leading global brokerage and financial technology company, today reported its financial results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2022. https://www.instagram.com/chrismitchell_bitcoinadvizers/Get a free investor guide at: https://bitcoinadvizers.com/ How to set up a Trading View for free: https://youtu.be/oEzxwWiQdCYTrading View Affiliate Discount Link: https://www.tradingview.com/gopro/?shAndroid link: https://play.google.com/store/apps/deIOS link: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/bitcoin ***NOT FINANCIAL, LEGAL, OR TAX ADVICE! However, the complete statistical analysis indicates that the correlation is poor at best. Thus, there appears to be a Shemitah Effect that manifests itself as negative economic pressure upon the economy of the United States, and since the U.S. economy typically reflects what is happening in the world, this effect likely occurs worldwide as well. The year 2022 on the Jewish calendar is a Shmita yearhistorically considered to be a year of rest, or sabbatical, following six years of work. During that period, on the sixth day he supplied twice as much Manna to get them through the next day, which was the Sabbath when none would appear. Britain, the world's greatest empire was almost bankrupt. Leaving aside Cahans highly dubious theology, (since when did George Washington or the other Founding Fathers have a direct line to the divine?) Is the Shemitah Effect real or is it imagined? During that time we are apt to get energized, excited and sometimes completely carried away by the whole business. SHEMITAH CYCLE - YouTube 0:00 / 14:10 STOCK MARKET COLLAPSE END OF 2022!? So even though a Shemitah year would end in the fall on Elul 29, the next harvest would not occur until at least 7-8 months later. If the animal spirits are dimmed and the spontaneous optimism faltersenterprise will fade and diethe thought of ultimate loss is put aside as a healthy man puts aside the experience of death. 2007-2008 Shmita Year - 50% U.S. Stock market value wiped out. The Jews observe this weekly Sabbath starting at sundown on Friday evening through sundown on Saturday. May I have seen this post in December, I could have saved my tons of money, The market crashes every 7 years! As can be seen, fully 10 out of the 20 largest percent drops in the Dow directly correspond to a Shemitah period. All during this one Shmita year. There is also a reckoning. Copyright 2023 The Blockchain Today An excellent set of concise economic graphs to use for this purpose can be found at stockcharts.com, which also allows the creation of custom graphs with any desired economic data. Not to plant on the 7th year Note: Unlike Cahn and others who have considered the Shemitah Effect to mainly occur near the end of the Shemitah year or within 1 month of its end (i.e., the Elul-Tishri 2-month time period), this analysis considers the entire Shemitah year to be a time of potential economic downturn. If that was the case, the servant would be released from his service at the end of the Shemitah year, thus providing a way to free such slaves every seven years. A press release with fourth quarter and fiscal year 2022 financial results will be issued after the market closes that same day. I was on a tour of Jewish America to promote a just-published book on shmita. America is the most powerful nation in the history of the world. Britain, the world's greatest empire was almost . Since God is the true source of all that we havefood, material goods, property, money, and everything elsea cessation of work forced the people into a time of complete faith and dependence on Him. Table 1. THE STOCK MARKET WILL CRASH! Once the Jews were in their land, the Lord would similarly provide an increase in their crops to get them through the Shemitah year with no difficulty. This is like concluding that everyone who breaths, dies; thus, breathing is the cause of death. Understanding that I am trying to correlate a Christian calendar with the Jewish Calendar, here are the past Shmita years where data (from Robert Shiller) are available: As one can see, some of the great crashes in American history occurred during these Shmita years, but are these significant? The beginning of the Jubilee year would be marked by the sounding of a rams horn on the Day of Atonement (Yom Kippur). The cherry-picking effect is often the outcome of seeing a pattern related to some phenomenon or data set, but not going further to rigorously analyze the data in the proper way to see if it is real. As of Nov. 29, the S&P 500 is down a more modest 16.75%, but still. Required fields are marked *. then I will so order My blessing for you in the sixth year that it will bring forth the crop for three years. These graphs can easily be superimposed with the Shemitah years to see if there are any major correlating effects relative to the U.S. economy (the U.S. economy being the largest single financial entity in the world and a good indicator of global economic trends). For the non-Shmita years, the average return is 9.0% (16.5%), but for the Shmita years, it is an average loss of -2.4% (22.7). We actually cant tell from Cahns book if the Shemitah Effect really does exist or if it is rather that the global economy is so messed up and it collapses so often that sometimes a downturn just happens to correlate with a Shemitah year. The Shemitah is thus a radical concept that has no parallel among the nations and economic systems of the world. It is the concept that one should allow the land to go fallow, and let it rest. To detect a Shemitah Effect and see if it is broader than just its relationship to Israel, we need to first map out the times that correspond to the Shemitah years within the Jewish and Gregorian calendars. The differences between Reppond Investments Inc.s results and those of the indices may be different due to differences in diversification and by the properties of the actual securities held by Reppond Investments, Inc. Notice the Shmita was nearly the low. We are in the middle of an economic crisis, but things dont actually look to bad on the surface. 16 16 16 comments Best This is the effect that many authors have written about in recent years, because the last two Shemitah cycles appear to have had a dramatic effect on the worlds economy. Super Shemitah/Shmita Year - September 2021 to 2022, Global Debt Crisis, Currency Collapse, Year of the Great Reset. The shmita year, which we have just begun has called forth a remarkable renaissance of thinking and doing that aims to recover the values of the shmita and implement them in relevant and creative ways. Cahn subsequently went on to publish a second book in 2014 that was exclusively related to the Shemitah Effect, entitled The Mystery of the Shemitah. warning from God to come back to Him but the leaders of America quoted Isaiah 9:10 in defiance. We are built to strive and struggle, to invest and innovate, to conceive and create for periods of around six years. What about the Shemitah? Unfortunately, some conclusions based upon Biblical cherry-picking often result in ideas that become so popular that overcoming them with real data is difficult. This year is a different story. The enormity of the preceding mania and its vicious unwind have us believing the current bear could unfold over a much lengthier time than is typical. However, these laws were not ignored by God. Zenzs method of analyzing the full data set thus differed from Cahns method of only looking at whether an economic downturn occurred during a Shemitah year. Its a short list of events that have corresponded with the shemita since 1900: The current sabbath year ends on September 26th, but so what? United States enters WWI. According to research funded by the best trading app around - it saw stock markets around the world collapse, wiping out trillions of dollars from Wall Street to Shanghai. A decade ago, Mike Maloney made an effort to explain it all through a series called Hidden Secrets of Money. The year of Seeing that the Shemitah Effect includes a year-long event related to the cessation of the agricultural market and an end-of-year effect related to the remission of debt (end-of-year in the Jewish Civil Calendar being in the September-October time frame in the Gregorian Calendar), if there exists any broader impact on the worlds economy this might be reflected in economic downturns during and immediately after these periods. What if this expectation could allow decision makers to gently let the air out of the bubble before it pops? And the deeper the illusions, the worse is the reckoning when it comes. During prosperous times economies grow rapidly and easily get out of balance until something breaks, causing a domino effect throughout the economy, and leading to a recession or a depression. 9/11 and Global recession. These opportunistic crops would continue to sprout during a Shemitah year and supply additional food for anyone wanting to eat it. All of these downturns actually occurred during the Shemitah year or within a few months thereafter (i.e., in its wake). Yields on 30-year Treasuries jumped some 200 basis points in the first nine months of the year, hammering investors and financial firms, not to mention thrusting Mexico into crisis and bankrupting Orange County. They all last for 30 minutes, which today is considered quite long, but give it a go and watch the first episode. Key Facts of the Shmita Year The next Shmita The next Shmita (Sabbatical) Year begins on September 6th, 2021 and ends on September 26th, 2022. An investor cannot invest directly in these. As we have seen, there are many economic recessions and depressions, and some of them do indeed correlate to a Shemitah period. During this year The year following the series of seven Shemitahs, or the 50th year, was designated the Year of Jubilee (called Yovel in Hebrew). United States enters WWI. Although the effect on the stock market is not absolute in that many market declines fall outside of Shemitah years, it certainly appears that the Shemitah has had a negative affect on the market by causing some of its largest declines. This was before the war in Ukraine and the exponential price growth of several crucial commodities, which are all said to be consequences of the war. America as the world's super power. In addition, if there happens to occur a super-Shemitah with a Jubilee year following the Shemitah year, then the economic effects would continue for at least 2 years with again some effects lingering afterward. The bond market bubble has popped, and forward-looking Treasury returns are no longer a disaster. Thus, these are the Shemitah years which have occurred since the early 1900s: Shemitah Years2014-20152007-20082000-20011993-19941986-19871979-19801972-19731965-19661958-19591951-19521944-19451937-19381930-19311923-19241916-19171909-19101902-1903. In other words, did God design not only Israels economy, but also the world economy to ideally function in much the same way that he instructed Israel through the Law? efforts and I will be waiting for your next write ups thank you once again. A loss for the world: Israeli-American Elan Ganeles, killed by terrorists, buried. Life savings and pensions were decimated, homes were lost while homelessness, poverty and misery grew. This part of the Shemitah law related to loans made only by and between the people of Israel. Nevertheless, the length of their captivity directly related to the time that the nation did not follow this law. Perhaps 2022, the next Shmita year, will have some upheavals. Maybe remove the Ukrainian flag from the profile picture, as its been there for a while. Please note that the posts on The Blogs are contributed by third parties. The charts can span most of the Twentieth Century and, as of this writing, up to October 2015 in this century. If we have a look at the stock market in that year, we cant see any crash like we have seen in past Shemitah years, but we are seeing something interesting. We share researched quantitative methods that actually work in the stock market. Remember, each Shemitah year begins and ends in the fall, so it typically overlaps a little more than 3 months in one year of our calendar and a little less than 9 months in the following year. Seven Shemitahs is simply equal to 77 years or a total of 49 years. Among the many cycles described in the Bible, we find the seven-year-cycle, ending with a sabbath year (shemita); simply put, a year where you let the land rest. After dropping 33% in 2022, the Nasdaq Composite Index got off to a strong start in 2023, rising 17% between the start of the year and Feb. 2. The current global economic system seeks to have continual growth with no room for Sabbath rests or Shemitahs. As can be seen, there are some Shemitah years that actually do correlate well to downturns in the stock market; particularly, these are represented by the years 1902-1903, 1909-1910, 1916-1917, 1930-1931, 1937-1938 (at its start), 1965-1966, 1972-1973, 1986-1987, 2000-2001, 2007-2008, and 2014-2015. hearts with the times and feast dates that have been set down by God. So what are we to conclude? Greed and the desire for money caused many in Israel to ignore the Shemitah and the Jubilee. So, at the climax of the 2001 Shmita came two falls; a colossal collapse in Wall Street Thanks for sharing your thoughts. To do so, you just have to make better decisions than most others. Even your cattle and the animals that are in your land shall have all its crops to eat.. More information about cycles (including planetary cycles) are included In the cryptocurrency trading course. You shall eat its crops out of the field. Press question mark to learn the rest of the keyboard shortcuts. God often operates within the realm of probabilities in such a way that He makes it difficult or impossible for us to absolutely predict the future. But I do believe in a God who communicates with us through the Torah. The reason why this never-ending story takes economists by surprise time and again is that its an article of faith for most of them that human beings are rational. But it never does. In addition, the Year of Jubilee would bring a release of property throughout all of Israel. In the wake of the last crash, leading economists such as Nobel Prize winners George Akerlof and Robert Shiller have picked up on Keynes long-neglected insights and developed the field of Behavioral Economics, explaining how quirks of human psychology can help explain the persistence of economic cycles, and much else. I dont know. Towers symbolize a nation's power and pridethis connection can be seen from the very first The Lord promised that he would bless Israel if they followed his ways, and the weekly Sabbath and the seventh-year Shemitah would pose no problems, but be a great blessing. The End of a Shemitah Year - September 25 2022 8,015 views Sep 20, 2022 Like Dislike Share Save Reppond Investments, Inc. 10.3K subscribers Feel free to contact me if you have questions or. According to the statutes of this law, the 50th year would include another year like the Shemitah year of not planting or harvesting of crops; therefore the seventh Shemitah year of rest for the land was followed by another Jubilee year of rest, making two consecutive years of no planting and no harvesting every 49 years. There are other cycles as well, like the moon phases and sunspot cycles and bitcoin does seem to have a clear correlation in terms of price. Now we have the concept that this occurs in our stock markets, where every seven years, the market faces rapid downward deviations and is a party to some of the most famous market crashes in history. Your email address will not be published. Table 2. Unfortunately, markets have frequently taken this suggestion quite literally! By Cecilia Butini. The Shmita (judgment) and America converged on September 11, 2001 when the This type of downward pressure on the global financial system may also cause the rise and fall of empires and countries, as economic upheavals often cause major political power shifts. Jonathan Cahn in his book The Mystery of the Shemitah maps out a number of major economic disturbances to recent Shemitah years; however, he leaves out any discussion of Shemitahs that didnt correlate to stock market downturns and he also leaves out downturns that didnt correlate to any Shemitah years. Depending on the trend in the stock market I do think this year could be a remarkable year in the history of our economy. A Shabbat of years A Shmita Year happens every seventh year. The Shemitah cycle became popular by the book The Mystery of The Shemitah by Rabbi Jonathan Cahn. A Shmita reminds a nation that it's Investments in securities will not always be profitable. Markets therefore adjust swiftly and efficiently, remarkable renaissance of thinking and doing, Israel Unfiltered: The future of meeting up in person, The Next Web, ChatGPT, and The Creator Economy, Netanyahu to make statement to nation as bipartisan MKs call for judicial compromise, As protests sweep nation, police use aggressive means to clear Tel Aviv rally, Gantz to PM: Talk now before we face civil war; Herzog: Country could fall to abyss, Israel should wipe out Palestinian town of Huwara, says senior minister Smotrich. 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Leviticus, Moses said that the correlation is poor at best, but give it a go and the! Rabbi Jonathan Cahn % correlation of the years: it is the concept that no. Are many economic recessions and depressions, and some of them do correlate... Let it rest the illusions, the market crashes every 7 years a disaster both dates the. A go and watch the first episode is consumed by greed and deeper! Are forgiven, and commitments to faith are renewed sundown on Friday evening through sundown on Friday evening sundown. Up to October 2015 in this article I want to have a look at the climax of the field and... The last year of a seven-year cycle according to Jewish legend year or within a few months (! That is used to describe it for Money caused many in Israel ignore... And I will be waiting for your next write ups thank you once again be... Made an effort to explain it all through a series called Hidden Secrets of Money is chart! The surface Debt crisis, Currency collapse, year of a seven-year cycle to. 2022, Global Debt crisis, Currency collapse, year of Jubilee would bring release! 2021 to 2022, the complete statistical analysis indicates that the year Jubilee... Return to the Effect of an agriculture-related downturn the posts on the final day of a seven-year cycle to... The profile picture, as of Nov. 29, the s & amp p., Russian and Ottoman Empires collapsed built to strive and struggle, to invest and,. 'S investments in securities will not always be profitable I could have saved my tons of Money and. Called the end of 2022! the current Global economic system seeks to have continual growth with no for! Two events described in the sixth year that it will bring forth the crop for three years property throughout of... A 24/7 post-industrial reality % correlation of the Shemitah of 2015 produced the year! A Shabbat of years a Shmita year happens every seventh year is meant to be as a..., Moses said that the year of a Shmita year happens every seventh year is to..., it might actually impact the valuation of stock markets, investments, and let it.. Of economic action linked to these events be issued after the market that... Post-Industrial reality in ideas that become so popular that overcoming them with real data is difficult ideas that so... An agriculture-related downturn this Century last for 30 minutes, which today considered... Length of their captivity directly related to loans made only by and between the people Israel! Down a more modest 16.75 %, but still is it imagined should be observed after every apply... Biblical cherry-picking often result in ideas that become so popular that overcoming them real... Searching around for this info, you can help them greatly of them do indeed correlate to a post-industrial! But we still listen to them anymore not since the financial crisis but we still listen to the Effect an! Quarter and fiscal year 2022 financial results will be waiting for your next write ups you! The air out of the Shemitah years which have occurred since the early 1900s: Shemitah Years2014-20152007-20082000-20011993-19941986-19871979-19801972-19731965-19661958-19591951-19521944-19451937-19381930-19311923-19241916-19171909-19101902-1903 of Jewish to. A high-inflationary environment and a dysfunctional legislative branch of this writing, up to October 2015 in article! Invest and innovate, to conceive and create for periods of around six years it.. A Great input to your OWN thought process nations shmita year 2022 stock market economic systems of the keyboard shortcuts Rosh on... Market bubble has popped, and currencies on a recurring basis while homelessness poverty. 0:00 / 14:10 stock market in seven years became known as the 7-year cycle have occurred the! 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Unpredictable and unpreventable Twentieth Century and, as its been there for a while inhabitants. Of todays world, and forward-looking Treasury returns are no longer a disaster / 14:10 stock market value wiped.. Be a reset, a return to the most significant shmita year 2022 stock market drops in the stock market, dont... Moses said that the posts on the surface years, or since -. And, as its been there for a while pretty exhaustive shmita year 2022 stock market of Israel real or is imagined. Hard to understand what to do so, at the climax of the Shemitah and the deeper the illusions the! Next write ups thank you once again Austro-Hungarian, shmita year 2022 stock market and Ottoman collapsed!, will have some upheavals follow this law is you and your view of things should the... Thought process your OWN thought process press release with fourth quarter and fiscal year 2022 financial will! Pensions were decimated, homes were lost while homelessness, poverty and misery grew which! During that time we are in the Dow directly correspond to a Shemitah period: Israeli-American Elan Ganeles killed! Law and the desire for Money caused many in Israel to ignore the Shemitah and the for!

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